It is the last round for both teams. Efes has some small chances to be second, but in this case, they need to win today and hope that Panathinaikos will win against Cska next week. If not Efes will be 3rd and will play against Fenerbahce in a playoff. Milano can win or lose and they will be still 4th (this is a prediction that Bayern will lose against Barcelona and Zenit will win the last 2 games).
There are few reasons why to take Efes today. They lost against Milano at home and surely they will want to revenge. Efes is also in better form at the moment, they have a lot of players which can score and play very good basketball. Simon is questionable today, but on the other side, Hines will most likely miss this game, which is a very big handicap for Milano.
All in all, I think Efes is a bigger favorite than odds suggesting and I am taking them today.